Leaps of Confusion


By Carmen Sanchez /David Dunning C. サンチェス /D. ダニング
English 日本語 日本語
How much time do you spend doing research before you make a big ­decision? The answer for many of us, it turns out, is hardly any. Before buying a car, for instance, most people make two or fewer trips to a dealership. And when picking a doctor, many individuals simply use recommendations from friends and family rather than consulting medical professionals or sources such as health-care Web sites or articles on good physicians, according to an analysis published in the journal Health Services Research .  あなたは大きな決断を下す際,事前にどのくらいの時間をかけて調べるだろうか? 実のところ,多くの人はほとんど時間をかけない。例えば自動車を購入する場合,ほとんどの人はせいぜい2軒のディーラーに足を運ぶだけだ。どの医師にかかるかを選ぶ場合も,Health Services Research 誌に掲載された解析によれば,多くの人は友人や家族の薦めを参考にするだけで,医療の専門家に相談するとか,健康関連ウェブサイトや良医に関する記事といった情報を参照することはしない。
We are not necessarily conserving our mental resources to spend them on even weightier decisions. One in five Americans spends more time planning their upcoming vacation than they do on their financial future. There are people who go over every detail exhaustively before making a choice, and it is certainly possible to overthink things. But a fair number of individuals are quick to jump to conclusions. Psychologists call this way of thinking a cognitive bias, a tendency toward a specific mental mistake. In this case, the error is making a call based on the sparsest of evidence.  もっと重大な決断をするのに備えて知的資源を温存しているのかというと,そうでもない。米国人の5人に1人は,自分の将来の経済状況について考えるよりも,次の夏休みをどう過ごすかの計画を立てるのに多くの時間を使っている。
In our own research, we have found that hasty judgments are often just one part of larger error-prone patterns in behavior and thinking. These patterns have costs. People who tend to make such jumps in their reasoning often choose a bet in which they have low chances of winning instead of one where their chances are much better.  私たち著者はこれまでの研究を通じ,人間には間違いにつながりやすい行動・思考様式があり,性急な判断はその一部にすぎないことを見いだした。こうした行動・思考様式は代償を伴う。論理に飛躍がある人は,熟慮することなしに,成功の見込みが薄い選択肢に賭けてしまうことが多い。
To study jumping, we examined decision-making patterns among more than 600 people from the general population. Because much of the work on this type of bias comes from studies of schizophrenia (jumping to conclusions is common among people with the condition), we borrowed a thinking game used in that area of research.  結論に飛びつくこうした飛躍思考を調べるため,私たちは600人を超える一般人の意思決定パターンを詳しく検討した。このタイプの認知バイアスを調べた研究例の多くは統合失調症の人に関するものなので(結論に飛びつくのは統合失調症患者に広く見られる特徴),それらの研究で使われていた思考ゲームを借用した。
In this game, players encountered someone who was fishing from one of two lakes: in one lake, most of the fish were red; in the other, most were gray. The fisher would catch one fish at a time and stop only when players thought they could say which lake was being fished. Some players had to see many fish before making a decision. Others—the jumpers—stopped after only one or two.  この思考ゲームでは,釣り人が湖で釣りをしている様子を見せられる。湖は2種類あって,片方はほとんどの魚が赤く,他方はほとんどの魚がグレーだ。釣り人がいる湖はこのどちらかで,一度に1匹ずつ魚を釣り上げる。プレーヤーは釣り人がどちらの湖で釣っているかがわかったと思えたところでストップをかける,というゲームだ。一部のプレーヤーは決断までに多くの魚が釣り上げられるのを見る必要があった。残りの人たちは1匹か2匹を見ただけで結論に飛びつき,早々にストップをかけた。
We also asked participants questions to learn more about their thought patterns. We found that the fewer fish a player waited to see, the more errors that individual made in other types of beliefs, reasoning and decisions.  私たちは被験者の思考様式をもっと知るために,いくつかの質問もした。この結果,少数の魚を見ただけで結論を出した人ほど,別タイプの所信や推論,決断でも誤りを犯しやすいことがわかった。